L'agence de notation Moody's a annoncé le 27 janvier 2023, avoir abaissé la note de la Tunisie à Caa2 avec perspectives négatives. Dans un communiqué, l'agence explique que cette dégradation conclut l'examen initié en septembre 2022. Moody's a également abaissé les notations de la dette senior non garantie et la notation senior non garantie de la Banque centrale de Tunisie. La dégradation est motivée par l'évaluation de Moody's selon laquelle l'absence de financement à ce jour pour répondre aux importants besoins de financement du gouvernement, augmente les risques de défaut à un point qui ne correspond plus à une notation Caa1. « Un nouveau programme du FMI doit encore être sécurisé, malgré la conclusion d'un accord au niveau des services en octobre 2022, aggravant une situation de financement déjà difficile et les pressions sur l'adéquation des réserves de change de la Tunisie. Les conditions de financement intérieures et extérieures et le profil du service de la dette du gouvernement tunisien augmentent les risques de refinancement ». Moody's estime que la faiblesse de la gouvernance et les risques sociaux importants expliquent en partie pourquoi la Tunisie a atteint une telle situation critique. Par ailleurs, les perspectives négatives reflètent l'opinion de Moody's estimant qu' à moins d'une amélioration opportune des perspectives de financement externe, la probabilité de défaut pourrait augmenter au-delà de ce qui est compatible avec une notation Caa2. « De nouveaux retards prolongés dans la mise en place d'un nouveau programme du FMI éroderaient les réserves de change par le biais de prélèvements pour le paiement du service de la dette, exacerbant ainsi les risques de balance des paiements et la probabilité d'un rééchelonnement de la dette qui entraînerait des pertes pour les créanciers du secteur privé. Les risques pesant sur le profil de crédit de la Tunisie resteront orientés à la baisse, même dans le cadre d'un éventuel accord avec le FMI, les perspectives de financement restant tributaires de la mise en œuvre rapide et soutenue de réformes qui s'avéreront invariablement difficiles face aux faiblesses de la gouvernance et à l'exposition aiguë aux risques sociaux. Alors que le programme de réforme du gouvernement offre une voie pour corriger les importants déséquilibres budgétaires et extérieurs de la Tunisie, sa mise en œuvre risque d'être mise à l'épreuve par des obstacles politiques, sociaux et institutionnels », précise l'agence de notation.
La suite du communiqué en Anglais : RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK The negative outlook reflects Moody's view that, barring a timely improvement to external financing prospects, the probability of default may rise beyond what is consistent with a Caa2 rating. Further protracted delays in securing a new IMF programme would erode foreign exchange reserves through drawdowns for debt service payments, thereby exacerbating balance of payment risks and the probability of a debt restructuring that would entail losses for private sector creditors. The negative outlook also reflects the social, political and institutional challenges that constrain prospects for reform implementation, in light of weak governance and acute exposure to social risks. The government's reform agenda, with a focus on containment of the public sector wage bill in real terms, the gradual phasing out of consumption subsidies in favour of more targeted financial transfers, and reform of the loss-making state-owned enterprise sector, offers a route to redressing Tunisia's large fiscal and external imbalances. Some progress has started, through the conclusion in September 2022 of a salary agreement with social partners, as well as fuel and gas price increases implemented over the course of last year. However, further progress is likely to be tested by political, social, and institutional obstacles, even as financing prospects will remain dependent on timely and sustained reform implementation. As such, risks to Tunisia's credit profile will remain skewed to the downside even under any eventual IMF agreement. Tunisia's institutional framework remains in a state of flux, and the very low turnout recorded in the December 2022 parliamentary election – 11.2% according to the electoral board – is indicative of the country's fragmented political landscape. The delayed IMF Board-level Approval underscores the uncertainty surrounding the degree of consensus among stakeholders and social interest groups on the government's reform agenda. Moreover, Tunisia's performance under past IMF programmes has been mixed: the last IMF arrangement was cancelled in March 2020, earlier than planned, because of the extended parliamentary and presidential election cycle at that time, and with only five out of eight reviews completed. Recurring social tensions over the past decade against a backdrop of weak growth and employment creation, weakening governance and a fragmented political landscape have challenged successive governments' capacity to implement economic reforms and address fiscal imbalances.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS Tunisia's ESG Credit Impact Score is very highly negative (CIS-5), reflecting very high exposure to social risks and a weak governance profile. While remittances partially compensate for weak income prospects, the sovereign's capacity to respond to social risks is increasingly threatened by the government's balance-sheet constraints. Tunisia's credit profile is moderately exposed to environmental risks, reflected in its (E-3) issuer profile score and driven by its exposure to rising sea levels in coastal areas and to increasing water and desertification risks in internal regions. Coastal regions account for 80% of total output, driving exposure. Climate variability, erratic precipitation patterns and severe droughts pose threats to Tunisia's agricultural sector, which accounts for around 15% of total employment. Physical climate risk is moderately negative, carbon transition risks and waste and pollution risks are neutral-to-low while natural capital and water management risks are highly negative. Exposure to social risks is very high (S-5), driven by risks related to labour and income. Rigid labour markets and weak employment generation result in high unemployment rates, including among young graduates. These constraints make it difficult to absorb the well-educated workforce, contributing to negative net migration flows every year and to brain drain. Resilient remittances are a supportive factor and partially compensate for weak income prospects, but the issuer's shock resilience is increasingly threatened by the government's balance sheet constraints. More generally, progress on reforms, and as a result, fiscal strength, liquidity risks and to some extent external vulnerability risks, are shaped by social considerations and the capacity of the government and civil society stakeholders to align behind credible policy plans or not. Tunisia's governance is weak (G-4 issuer profile). Although the country's consensus-building orientation has been instrumental in securing the successful democratic transition with all stakeholders involved, in recent years the policy decision making process has been significantly impaired. Recurring social tensions inhibit policy effectiveness by reducing political consensus for reform, including from the part of civil society institutions. Moreover, the quality of executive and legislative institutions has weakened through successive governments failing to adopt and deliver a coherent policy agenda. Tunisia's institutional structure is highly negative, while policy credibility & effectiveness and budget management are moderately negative and transparency and disclosure is neutral-to-low.
