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Pour plusieurs analystes et experts, l'élimination du puissant chef des brigades d'élites Al Qods des Gardiens de la révolution (iranienne), le général Kassem Soleimani, aux abords de l'aéroport de Bagdad, le 3 janvier par un drone — sur ordre du président américain Donald Trump — risque d'être l'étincelle du nouvel embrasement du Moyen-Orient. La Presse de Tunisie vous propose une lecture radioscopique de cet évènement majeur du début de l'année 2020 à travers cette interview réalisée avec Youssef Cherif, expert en géopolitique et directeur adjoint du bureau de Columbia Global Centers à Tunis. Entretien. 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Comment l'éliminiation du tout-puissant général iranien Kassem Soleimani est-elle perçue au Proche-Orient? De l'Iran au Liban, en passant par l'Irak et la Syrie, l'assassinat du général iranien Soleimani — qui était derrière la mise en place et le développement de plusieurs groupes paramilitaires pro-iraniens dans la région — est une véritable onde de choc, pour ne pas dire un séisme. En revanche, dans les autres pays du Moyen-Orient, du moins les ennemis de Téhéran, l'élimination du troisième homme fort du régime iranien est un grand soulagement. Pour les Saoudiens et les Emiratis, il était la personnification du mal. La mort du chef emblématique des brigades d'élites Al Qods des Gardiens de la révolution aura-t-elle un impact sur les prix du baril de pétrole ? Les prix du pétrole continueront à grimper tant que les menaces d'éventuelles représailles iraniennes restent vives. Certes, Téhéran peut ne pas riposter en choisissant l'option de calmer le jeu, mais la réaction du régime des mollahs peut être tout autre à travers une escalade des tensions dans la région, voire un hypothétique affrontement militaire. Selon vous, comment l'Iran va-t-il se «venger»? Quels scénarios envisageables pour le régime des mollahs? Par quels relais ou moyens? Les Iraniens pourraient lancer des attaques contre les installations pétrolières dans le Golfe ou simplement contre les Etats arabes du Golfe, surtout l'Arabie saoudite. Cela peut se faire directement ou à travers leurs proxys (les rebelles Houthis au Yémen ou les milices chiites du Hachd al-Chaabi en Irak). C'est l'hypothèse la plus probable. Ils peuvent aussi attaquer les intérêts de ces derniers et des Américains ou des Européens dans la région par le biais de leurs alliés (par exemple leur relais libanais, le mouvement chiite du Hezbollah-Ndlr) ou dans différentes parties du monde. Les attaques peuvent cibler les ressortissants de ces pays, etc. Mais il ne s'agit pas uniquement de vengeance. En fait, c'est la continuation de la guerre, mais sans Soleimani. D'après vous, qu'est-ce qui a poussé l'Administration Trump à agir de telle sorte et franchir le Rubicon de la retenue diplomatique en optant pratiquement pour une opération militaire qualifiée quasiment d' « acte de guerre » ? Pour les Américains, le jeu de « ping-pong » a trop duré. En franchissant la ligne rouge (assassinat de Soleimani), les Américains pensent faire de la «deterrence» (dissuasion). Ils veulent aussi casser l'influence de l'Iran (vu la place qu'avait Soleimani). Les jours à venir nous diront s'ils ont vu juste ou pas. Enfin, peut-on dire qu'avec l'élimination de Baghdadi et de Soleimani, Trump a déjà scellé le sort de la présidentielle américaine du 3 novembre 2020? Pour Trump, oui c'est clairement un pas de plus vers sa réélection. Mais pas que: les Iraniens et les Américains sont en compétition en Irak. Les Américains veulent quitter le pays en y laissant un régime allié. Et les Iraniens veulent barrer la route à Washington et asseoir leur suprématie à travers un régime qui soit de leur côté. Interview réalisée par Abdel Aziz HALI 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