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Le 28 juin 1914, les deux coups de feu mortels tirés par l'étudiant serbe de Bosnie Garvilo Princip (19 ans) — un jeune nationaliste yougoslave de l'organisation révolutionnaire « Jeune Bosnie » — contre l'archiduc François-Ferdinand d'Autriche-Este et son épouse, la duchesse de Hohenberg, la duchesse de Hohenberg, à Sarajevo, ont fait basculer le destin du Vieux Continent, au faîte de sa puissance. L'assassinat du couple héritier du trône austro-hongrois avait servi de casus belli* au déclenchement de ce qui deviendra la Première Guerre mondiale (1914-1918), appelée aussi la Grande Guerre. Or, avec l'élimination du puissant chef iranien des brigades d'élites Al Qods des Gardiens de la révolution, le général Kassem Soleimani, aux abords de l'aéroport de Bagdad, le 3 janvier par un drone sur ordre du président américain Donald Trump, le monde commence à croiser les doigts face au risque d'un nouveau conflit mondial. On dit toujours jamais deux sans trois ! Et tout porte à croire qu'à défaut de désescalade des hostilités entre Téhéran et Washington, l'humanité a de fortes chances de vivre le dernier épisode de la trilogie de la Guerre mondiale en ce début de la deuxième décennie du XXIe siècle. Et voilà que le régime iranien a lancé, hier, dans le cadre d'une riposte militaire baptisée « Opération martyr Soleimani », 22 missiles sol-sol contre les bases de Aïn al-Assad (ouest) et Erbil (nord), où sont stationnés certains des 5.200 soldats américains déployés en Irak. Si le guide suprême, l'ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a déjà salué une «gifle à la face» des Etats-Unis, prévenant toutefois que ce n'était «pas suffisant », le président Rohani affirme que Téhéran a prouvé qu'il «ne bat pas en retraite» devant les Etats-Unis. Néanmoins, le chef de la diplomatie iranienne, Mohamed Javad Zarif, a précisé que les dirigeants de son pays ne cherchent pas « l'escalade ou la guerre » tout en s'accordant le droit de la légitime défense. Toutefois, « en réponse à l'agression iranienne », le président américain Donald Trump a annoncé, hier, lors d'une allocution depuis la Maison-Blanche « des sanctions économiques additionnelles contre le régime iranien ». Il a part ailleurs incité l'Otan à s'impliquer davantage au Moyen-Orient et appelé ses alliés européens à quitter l'accord sur le nucléaire iranien. Loin de ses habituels tweets belliqueux, la déclaration du « Commander in chief » des forces armées américaines s'inscrit dans la continuité de la politique étrangère de l'administration Trump à l'égard de l'Iran. Certes, Donald Trump ne gouverne pas seul, mais depuis l'assassinat du général Soleimani, rien ne sera comme avant, du moment que les deux pays ont déjà franchi le Rubicon des hostilités militaires. Pendant ce temps-là, le Premier ministre israélien, Benjamin Netanyahu, ainsi que les voisins de l'Iran dans le golfe arabo-persique pêchent dans les eaux troubles des tensions irano-américaines. En attendant, le monde retient son souffle du moment qu'au Maghreb, l'ingérence turque dans le chaudron libyen (un conflit opposant le Gouvernement d'union nationale, GNA, reconnu par la communauté internationale et les forces de l'homme fort de l'Est libyen, le maréchal Khalifa Haftar-ndlr) fait aussi des siennes. Croisons les doigts pour que la mort de Soleimani ne serve pas de prétexte pour déclencher le bruit de bottes d'un troisième conflit mondial ! 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*Casus belli: une locution latine, signifiant littéralement « cas de guerre », qui désigne un acte de nature à motiver, pour un gouvernement, une déclaration de guerre. (Le Grand Robert, art Casus belli). 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