Fitch Ratings a confirmé les notes de défaut émetteur (Issuer Default Rating – IDR) à long terme en devises et en monnaie locale attribuées à Tunisiana SA à 'BBB-' et sa note nationale à long terme à 'AA-(tun)'. La perspective de sa note à long terme en devises et en monnaie locale est négative alors que celle nationale à long terme a été révisée de stable à négative. Les notes de Tunisiana reflètent sa position de leader sur le marché et la génération de cash-flow solide. Les facteurs contraignants qui ont impacté la note de l'operateur sont sa taille relativement petite et le fait que ses activités sont limitées en Tunisie, où certains risques réglementaires existent. Les facteurs contraignants sur les cotes de Tunisiana sont sa taille relativement petite et le fait que ses activités se limitent à la Tunisie, où un certain risque réglementaire existe. Fitch s'attend à ce que les dividendes en 2013, le paiement de l'impôt ponctuel en plus du niveau plus élevé de dépenses d'investissement affaiblissent la liquidité de Tunisiana. Toutefois Fitch note que Tunisiana devrait prendre en 2013 un nouveau prêt bancaire sur cinq ans qui réconfortera sa liquidité. Selon les conditions de ce prêt convenu avec les banques, l'opérateur bénéficiera d'un an de grâce. En outre, l'agence de notation note que Tunisiana bénéficie d'un bon accès au marché financier local qui soutient sa liquidité. I.N (D'après communiqué) Ci-dessous le communiqué intégral en anglais Fitch Ratings-Dubai/London-24 July 2013: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Tunisiana SA's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'BBB-' and its National Long-term rating at 'AA(tun)'/Stable. The Outlook on the Long-term foreign currency IDR is Negative. The Outlook on the local currency IDR has been revised to Stable from Negative. The ratings reflect Tunisiana's leading market positioning and solid cash flow generation. The constraining factors on Tunisiana's ratings are its relatively small size and the fact that its operations are limited to Tunisia, where some regulatory risk exists. KEY RATING DRIVERS Pressure on Tunisia Country Ceiling In December 2012, Fitch downgraded Tunisia's Long-term foreign currency IDR to 'BB+'/Negative from 'BBB-'/Negative, Long-term local currency IDR to 'BBB-'/Negative from 'BBB'/Negative and the Country Ceiling to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. This is reflected in the revision of the Outlook on Tunisiana's foreign currency IDR to Negative. Tunisia's Country Ceiling is still under pressure as is Tunisiana's foreign currency IDR. The Tunisian regulation imposes restrictions on Dinar's convertibility and how much money Tunisian and guests can convert into foreign currency and transfer overseas. However, this has the benefit of reducing the risk of excessive dividends being upstreamed to shareholders. Unchanged Leading Market Position Despite Orange Orange won a licence to offer mobile and fixed-voice and data services in 2009, yet its presence has not affected Tunisiana, which has maintained its market share. Orange, previously owned by Investec a Tunisian subsidiary of Mabrouk group (the former President's in-laws) and now taken over by the Tunisian state, has faced challenging times after the change in regime in 2011. This has prevented Orange from capitalising on its first mover advantage. Tunisiana was awarded licenses to launch and operate a 3G mobile network and a fixed-line network in 2012 and this should enable it to defend its market position. Tunisiana had 55% market share, in terms of subscribers, in 2012 compared with 13% for Orange. Orange has gained market share against the incumbent Tunisie Telecom. Low Growth Prospects in 2013 and 2014 The mobile penetration rate in the country is high reaching 122% in 2012 and growth over the past two years has been driven by higher usage among declining tariffs. Fitch expects the growth over the next two years to be in the low single digit driven by low GDP growth (Fitch estimates 3.5% to 4.0% in 2013 and 2014, respectively). Management expects mobile data to progressively replace mobile voice over the medium term. The use of mobile phones for payments (mobile money) is also offering new opportunities for growth to telecom operators. Reduced FCF Tunisiana's FCFs are supported by its high EBITDA margins (sustained above 50%). The issuance of the 3G and fixed-line licenses in 2012 for USD135m has weighed on the company's free cash flow(FCF), but it remained positive at TND 52m, i.e 4.6% of sales (27.9% in 2011) supported by the absence of dividends. Tunisiana will distribute dividends to its shareholders in 2013 and this should take FCF to negative territory. End of Net Cash Position Tunisiana has had a net cash position since 2010. The company has been able to fund its capex and other financing needs from operating cash flows up to 2012. The net adjusted debt/EBITDAR ratio has reduced to -0.6x at FYE12 (- 0.5x at FYE11). Tunisiana is about to raise TND220m in the coming weeks (and should raise TND160m before year-end) to fund its 3G and fixed-line licenses, its future capex and satisfy dividends and Fitch expects the net leverage ratio to increase to 0.6x at FYE13, but remain consistent with the current rating. We expect the FFO interest coverage to remain good with a ratio of 36x at FYE13 (690x at FYE12). Standalone Rating Ooredoo (A+/Stable) now holds 90% of Tunisiana's capital. However Tunisiana continues to be rated based on the standalone profile of its Tunisiana-branded mobile business in Tunisia. Based on Fitch's parent and subsidiary rating linkage methodology, Fitch notes that there are uncertainties about the remaining 10% stake of Tunisiana, currently held by the Tunisian state (formerly by Princess Holding), which could ultimately be subject to an IPO rather than sold to Ooredoo. RATING SENSITIVITIES Competition and Sovereign Rating A steep deterioration in the business environment (e.g. a maturing market compounded by stiff competition), leading to sharply lower operating margins and higher leverage, would be negative for the ratings. High 3G-related capex or excessive dividend payments could also be detrimental. Fitch expects net debt/EBITDA to remain below 1x, consistent with the current ratings. A multiple-notch downgrade of the Tunisian sovereign, due to its impact on the Country Ceiling, would also have implications for Tunisiana's ratings. LIQUIDITY & DEBT STRUCTURE Satisfactory Liquidity Tunisiana's liquidity was good considering the low level of debt on its balance sheet at FYE12. The company had TND352m of cash and equivalents and only TND1m of short-term debt. The company has refrained dividend distribution over the past two years which supported the funding of 3G and fixed-line licenses (USD135m) from operating cash flows. Fitch expects the dividends in 2013 and the one-off tax payment in addition to higher level of capex to weaken the liquidity of Tunisiana. However Fitch notes that Tunisiana should raise a new five-year bank loan in 2013 to comfort its liquidity. As per agreed loan terms with the banks, the loan should benefit from a one-year grace period. Tunisiana enjoys a good access to the local financial market, which supports its liquidity.
