مختار العماري | E4T يكاد نصف الناتج الداخلي الخام في تونس يفلت من الرقابة ليزدهر في الظل والعتمة. ولم يعد الأمر مجرد ظاهرة هامشية يمكن معالجتها جزئياً. فقد أصبح الاقتصاد غير المنظم القلب النابض للاقتصاد التونسي — نظاماً موازياً، هيكلياً وشاملاً، يُنتج ويوزع ويشغّل وينمو خارج الأطر الرسمية. وقد كشفت دراسة نُشرت في مارس 2026 في مجلة African Development Review التابعة للبنك الإفريقي للتنمية، بالأرقام، حجم الظاهرة: فعلى امتداد 35 سنة، من 1988 إلى 2023، بلغ متوسط مساهمة الاقتصاد الموازي 39.08% من الناتج الداخلي الخام. وهو وزن ضخم للغاية. 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دولة داخل الدولة المنهجية التي اعتمدها الباحثون — نموذج MIMIC (المؤشرات المتعددة والأسباب المتعددة)، وهو أداة اقتصادية قياسية مرجعية لقياس المتغيرات غير المرئية — لا تترك مجالاً للشك. فهي تجمع في آن واحد بين الأسباب الهيكلية والمؤشرات القابلة للملاحظة لإعادة بناء حجم الثروة التي تدور خارج نطاق الجباية والضمان الاجتماعي والإحصاءات الرسمية، سنة بعد سنة. النتيجة واضحة: تونس تعيش في حالة هيكلية من الاقتصاد غير المنظم، حيث يعمل الجزء الأكبر من النشاط الاقتصادي في الظل، بعيداً عن رقابة الدولة. 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مرونة الظاهرة ما يلفت الانتباه في هذه الدراسة ليس فقط حجم الظاهرة، بل قدرتها الكبيرة على التكيف مع الصدمات. فالاقتصاد غير المنظم في تونس يشبه كائناً حياً: ينكمش نسبياً في فترات الاستقرار والانفتاح التجاري، ثم يتوسع بشكل حاد كلما تعرض النسيج الاجتماعي لهزات. وقد بلغ 41.70% من الناتج الداخلي سنة 2011، سنة الثورة، قبل أن يرتفع إلى مستوى قياسي بلغ 46.62% في 2020، نتيجة تداعيات الحجر الصحي، وارتفاع البطالة، وتراجع المبادلات الخارجية. أما أدنى مستوى سُجل خلال الفترة المدروسة فكان سنة 2007 بنسبة 30.43%، أي ما يعادل تقريباً ثلث الاقتصاد الرسمي، وهو ما يعكس قدرة هيكلية على الصمود رغم الإصلاحات التي أُطلقت في منتصف العقد الأول من الألفية. 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دور فريدريش شنايدر يُعد فريدريش شنايدر، أحد مؤلفي الدراسة، من أبرز المختصين عالمياً في الاقتصاد الموازي، وقد وثّق هذه الظاهرة عبر أكثر من 150 دولة. وتُظهر أبحاثه أن الأزمات السياسية والصحية تعمل كمسرّعات لنمو الاقتصاد غير المنظم: فعندما تضعف الدولة، يتجه الفاعلون الاقتصاديون نحو الأنشطة الموازية. وفي تونس، أدى تأثير ثورة 2011 إلى إبقاء الاقتصاد غير المنظم أعلى ب6.6 نقاط مئوية من مستواه المتوقع لمدة ثماني سنوات. 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أربع أسباب رئيسية حدد النموذج أربع عوامل أساسية: 1. الضغط الجبائي (0.95): العامل الأكثر تأثيراً، إذ يدفع الفاعلين الاقتصاديين إلى مغادرة القطاع المنظم. 2. البطالة (0.88): تدفع الفئات المهمشة نحو العمل غير المنظم، باعتباره الخيار الوحيد المتاح. 3. الفساد المؤسسي (0.11): يضعف الثقة في الدولة ويشجع على التحايل على القوانين. 4. الانفتاح التجاري (-0.17): العامل الوحيد الذي يحد من الظاهرة، عبر فرض قواعد السوق المنظمة. 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أرقام تعكس الواقع في سنة 2019، كان نحو 1.6 مليون تونسي يعملون دون تغطية اجتماعية، أي ما يمثل 44.8% من مجموع اليد العاملة. وفي بعض الولايات، مثل المهدية وسيدي بوزيد والقيروان ومدنين، تتجاوز النسبة 50%. كما أن 60% من العاملين في القطاع غير المنظم لم يتجاوزوا المرحلة الابتدائية، ما يجعل هذا الاقتصاد أيضاً اقتصاداً للإقصاء والتهميش والانقطاع المبكر عن التعليم. وتُقدّر قيمة الأصول غير المصرّح بها بنحو 115 مليار دولار، أي أربعة أضعاف الاستثمارات الأجنبية المباشرة منذ 1976، وهو ما يعكس فجوة عميقة بين الاقتصاد الحقيقي والاقتصاد المعلن. 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نزيف في المالية العمومية تترتب عن هذه الظاهرة آثار هيكلية خطيرة، إذ تخسر الدولة التونسية موارد جبائية هامة تُقدّر ب5450 مليون دينار سنة 2019 فقط. وهذا يعني تراجعاً في الإنفاق العمومي على الصحة والتعليم والبنية التحتية. كما يؤثر الاقتصاد غير المنظم سلباً على النمو، حيث يرتبط توسعه بتباطؤ الاقتصاد الرسمي. وتؤدي المنافسة غير المشروعة إلى تدمير مواطن الشغل، كما حدث في قطاع الأحذية بصفاقس الذي فقد 40 ألف وظيفة بين 2010 و2016. كما تؤدي التضخم إلى تفاقم الظاهرة، إذ يدفع تراجع القدرة الشرائية المواطنين إلى اللجوء للأسواق الموازية الأرخص، مما يعمق الحلقة المفرغة. وتزداد الصعوبة في كسر هذه الحلقة في ظل مشاكل الشفافية والفساد داخل الإدارة الجبائية. 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خمسة محاور إصلاح عاجلة 1. إصلاح جبائي ذكي: تخفيف العبء على المؤسسات الصغرى والمستقلة لتشجيع الانخراط في الاقتصاد المنظم. 2. الرقمنة وتبسيط الإجراءات: تقليص آجال وإجراءات بعث المؤسسات إلى مسار رقمي سريع. 3. إصلاح سوق الشغل: مراجعة منظومة المساهمات الاجتماعية لتشجيع التشغيل المنظم. 4. مكافحة الفساد: تعزيز الشفافية واعتماد الفوترة الإلكترونية وتقليص التعامل النقدي. 5. الانفتاح التجاري: دعم الاندماج في الاقتصاد العالمي للحد من الاقتصاد الموازي. 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لم يعد السؤال ما إذا كان الاقتصاد غير المنظم يمثل مشكلة — فالأرقام حسمت ذلك. بل السؤال الحقيقي هو: هل تمتلك الدولة التونسية القدرة السياسية لمعالجة الأسباب العميقة بدل الاكتفاء بالأعراض؟ فإدماج الاقتصاد الموازي ليس مسألة تقنية، بل هو مسألة ثقة. وهذه الثقة تآكلت في تونس قبل الاقتصاد نفسه. وفي ظل هذا الواقع، يصبح من الصعب جذب الاستثمارات الأجنبية، أو الحد من البطالة، أو وضع سياسات اقتصادية طويلة المدى ذات مصداقية، مما يطرح تساؤلات جدية حول استمرار هذا الوضع وتأثيره على مستقبل البلاد. 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ترجمة للنص الأصلي L'économie informelle en Tunisie : Un Etat dans l'Etat ? تابعونا على ڤوڤل للأخبار