Fitch Ratings a déclassé la Tunisie sur sa note à long terme de BBB- à BB+. L'agence a également abaissé la note du Pays de la Tunisie à 'BBB-' de 'BBB' et à court terme en devises IDR à 'B' à partir de 'F3'. Ci joint le communiqué en Anglais de Fitch Ratings :
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Tunisia's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' and Long-term local currency IDR to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. The Outlooks on the IDRs are Negative. The agency has also downgraded Tunisia's Country Ceiling to 'BBB-' from 'BBB' and Short-term foreign currency IDR to 'B' from 'F3'. RATING RATIONALE The downgrade of Tunisia's sovereign ratings by one notch reflects the agency's view that the country's economic and political transition is proving longer and more difficult than anticipated and downside risks around the process have therefore increased. In addition large twin budget and current account deficits are leading to deteriorating public and external debt ratios. Social unrest and political tensions are persisting, adding uncertainty to the political transition in the country. Legislative and presidential elections have been postponed to June 2013 and could be further deferred to end-2013 and the risks around Fitch's base case of a successful transition have increased. Longer transition periods and election campaigns are not conducive for macroeconomic reforms and could fuel social unrest. Loose economic policies, combined with high oil prices have fuelled twin deficits, with the budget and current account deficits expected to widen to 7.2% and 7.5% of GDP respectively in 2012. Credit growth is rapid, weakening bank liquidity and driving inflation up to an expected 5.5% by year-end. Although monetary policy is tightening, the twin deficits are expected to remain at 6.6% and 6.8% respectively in 2013, putting strain on official foreign currency reserves, which currently only cover three months of current external payments. Additionally, asset quality is weak in the banking sector due to a legacy of mismanagement, transparency is poor and it is suffering from a prolonged strain on liquidity. It requires urgent recapitalisation and restructuring which will affect public finances and delay economic recovery. These macroeconomic imbalances will result in higher public and external debt in 2012 and 2013. Financing and refinancing risks are, however, mitigated by a favourable repayment schedule and by the strong support of official bilateral and multilateral creditors, which will finance most of Tunisia's large borrowing needs in coming years.
